Lines and injury designations below read on Wednesday September 16 at 1:10 AM ET. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, the pick we got wrong in Week 1
The Week 1 guide called the Los Angeles Chargers the safest pick on the board. They were the widest favorite of the week at 8.5 points, at home, against a Cardinals team nobody expected much from. Arizona won 26-14.
That is worth saying plainly rather than quietly rewriting, because it is the single most useful thing that happened in Week 1. The other three teams that guide named all survived: Jacksonville won 34-10, Philadelphia won 24-22, and Detroit needed overtime to get past New Orleans 31-30. Three out of four, and the one that lost was the one labelled safest.
The lesson is not that spreads are useless. It is that the widest number on the board is the best single bet available and still nowhere near a certainty, and that every survivor pool in the country piles onto that number at the same time. When it misses, it takes an enormous share of the field with it. That is exactly what happened: across the pools we run, roughly three quarters of the entries that took the Chargers in Week 1 are gone.
How to think about Week 2
The field is smaller now, so the calculation changes slightly. In Week 1 the only job was to survive. From here the question gets a second half to it:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
Anyone can read a betting line and tell you who is favored. The part that actually decides survivor pools is the second half of that sentence. Every team is a chip you can spend once. A 10 point favorite you will never want again is a far better buy than a 7 point favorite whose schedule makes them the obvious answer in three separate later weeks.
The Week 2 board
Six realistic options, not sixteen. Everything below is a team favored by enough to be worth considering, with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest pick: San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami Dolphins, -10.5)
Why they win: The biggest number on the Week 2 board, at home. San Francisco went to Los Angeles in Week 1 and beat the Rams 27-7 as a 3.5 point favorite, which is the kind of result that moves a team up everyone's list. Miami lost 27-13 at Las Vegas.
What could go wrong: Read the section above again. Last week's widest number was 8.5 and it lost outright. A double digit spread is the best available bet in a given week, not a formality, and this will be one of the most popular picks in the country. The injury report is quiet for them this week, which is the point: it is the week their price is highest.
Worth saving? Less than the number suggests, and that is an argument for taking them now rather than against it. This is an aging roster leaning on veterans in Mike Evans and Christian McCaffrey, and it has spent a few seasons now with a ceiling that depends on those players being available. A team you are not confident will still be this good in November has future value that is already discounted. If their best version is the one on the field this week, this is the week to buy it.
Best strategic pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cleveland Browns, -6.5)
Why they win: Cleveland was beaten 34-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1 with Deshaun Watson under center, and he is still the starter here. Nothing about their situation has changed for the better. Tampa Bay gets them at home off a 33-27 loss at Cincinnati, which is a competitive loss rather than a bad one.
What could go wrong: Six and a half is a real number, not a gift, and the Buccaneers have already shown they can lose a shootout. This is the pick you take knowing it is a notch less safe than San Francisco.
Worth saving? No, and that is the whole argument. Tampa Bay is not a team you will be desperate for in Week 12. That low opportunity cost is what makes a mid-sized favorite the better buy than a big one you will miss.
Strong, but expensive: Baltimore Ravens (vs. New Orleans Saints, -7.5)
Why they win: Baltimore went to Indianapolis and won 41-23 as a 3 point underdog, the most emphatic road result of Week 1. They are home here against a Saints team that needed overtime to lose 31-30 at Detroit.
What could go wrong: New Orleans took a good team to overtime on the road in Week 1. They are not the pushover the number implies, and a team playing that way is exactly the sort that keeps a game close into the fourth quarter.
Worth saving? Strongly. Baltimore is a premium survivor asset all season. Spending them in Week 2 is a real cost for a 7.5 point edge you can get elsewhere.
Strong, but the most expensive on the board: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Indianapolis Colts, -6.5)
Why they win: Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 at home in Week 1 as a 2.5 point favorite. Indianapolis was beaten 41-23 at home by Baltimore.
What could go wrong: It is a Sunday night game, so if it goes badly you find out after every other result is in and there is nothing left to hope for. That is a real consideration in a pool where you can watch the field thin out all afternoon.
Worth saving? More than anyone else here. If there is one team you want available for a bad week in December, it is this one. Take them in Week 2 only if the rest of the board genuinely scares you.
The popular pick to avoid: Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona Cardinals, -10)
Why people will take it: It is the second biggest number on the board at 10 points, and Seattle opened the season with a 13-10 win over New England.
What could go wrong: Start with the quarterback. Sam Darnold was hurt in that New England game and is listed doubtful, with Drew Lock next on the depth chart. The team laying ten points on the road is probably not the team that number was built around.
Then the shape of it. A double digit favorite on the road is rare and rarely as comfortable as the number suggests, and the opponent is the team that just went into Los Angeles as an 8.5 point underdog and beat the Chargers 26-14. Arizona is playing better than the market has caught up to, Seattle's own win was by three, and the line has not yet absorbed the change under center.
Worth saving? Not especially, which makes this tempting. Take the spread at face value and it looks like the best blend on the board. That is precisely the shape of last week's mistake.
The second trap: Los Angeles Rams (vs. New York Giants, -9.5)
Why people will take it: Nine and a half points at home against a team rebuilding.
What could go wrong: The Rams were beaten 27-7 at home by San Francisco in Week 1 and the Giants beat Dallas 28-20 as a home underdog. The defensive front is the part nobody can price: Myles Garrett is ruled out with a knee injury, while Aaron Donald has come out of retirement and is active for this one.
That is not simply a depleted team, it is a different one, and different is the thing you least want when you are laying nine and a half points to stay alive. A blowout loss, a front seven in flux, an opponent coming off a win as a dog, and the last game of the week, so if it goes wrong you have spent all of Monday night watching it happen.
Worth saving? No, but that is not a reason to spend them badly.
The ranking
- San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami, -10.5). The safest single game on the board, and cheaper to spend than a 10.5 point favorite usually is, because their value rests on staying healthy. Our pick.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cleveland, -6.5). Four points less safe and genuinely free to spend. The pick if you would rather not lay double digits a week after double digits lost.
- Baltimore Ravens (vs. New Orleans, -7.5). Strong, and a team you will want back.
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Indianapolis, -6.5). Strong, and the most expensive pick on the board.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. New York Giants, -9.5). Avoid. Big number, bad signals underneath it.
- Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona, -10). Avoid, and it is not close. A double digit road favorite likely without its starting quarterback, against the team that just beat the last double digit favorite.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Wednesday morning, and a Friday practice report can move a number by three points. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner and is not always the first game of the week.
And check which teams you have already used. The most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you burned in Week 1.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 2 survivor pick?
San Francisco at home against Miami is the biggest number on the Week 2 board at 10.5 points. Safest means most likely to win this one game, which is not always the same as the best pick, though here the two line up: San Francisco is a team whose value depends on health, so holding them for November is less of a saving than it looks.
Should I take the biggest favorite every week?
Not automatically, and Week 1 of this season is the reason. The Los Angeles Chargers were the widest favorite on the board at 8.5 points, at home, and they lost 26-14 to Arizona.
A double digit favorite still loses outright several times a season. The spread tells you the odds, not the result, and a survivor pool only asks you to be right, not to be right by a lot.
Is it better to pick a strong team now or save them?
Save the teams whose value is hardest to replace. A team with an easy back half of the schedule is worth more to you in Week 11 than in Week 2, so spending them early costs you a pick you cannot get back. Picking a good-enough team you will never miss is usually the better trade.
Does my pool lock at the same time as everyone else's?
No. The pick deadline is set by your commissioner, not by the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Some lock at the Thursday night kickoff, some at the first Sunday game, and some lock each entry at its own kickoff.
Also worth reading: how to avoid an early elimination and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
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