Lines read on Tuesday September 22, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, how Week 2 went for this guide
Six teams named, and the scoreboard was not kind to the middle of the list. San Francisco won 35-13 and Kansas City needed overtime to beat Indianapolis 33-30. Both of the teams singled out as traps won anyway: Seattle 31-7 at Arizona, the Rams 28-6 over the Giants.
And both of the calm, mid-sized home favorites lost. Tampa Bay lost 23-19 to Cleveland at home. Baltimore lost 24-17 to New Orleans at home. Those were the two picks offered as sensible alternatives to laying a big number, and they are the two that ended seasons.
There is a real lesson in that, and it is not that the analysis was unusually bad. A seven point favorite wins around three times in four. Five favorites lost outright in Week 2. Survivor pools are decided by exactly that: a handful of games a week where the most likely outcome is not the one that happens. What you control is how much of your season you spend buying each week of safety.
How to think about Week 3
Two weeks of teams are gone from your list now, and the pools you are in are noticeably smaller. The question is the same as last week, with more weight on its second half:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
This week the tension is sharper than usual, because the biggest number on the board belongs to the single most valuable team you could be saving. And two of the games that look straightforward have a quarterback question sitting underneath them.
The Week 3 board
Seven games worth weighing, not sixteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals, -8.5)
Why they win: San Francisco is 2-0 and has looked the part, winning 27-7 at the Rams and 35-13 over Miami. Arizona opened with a 26-14 win at the Chargers and then lost 31-7 at home to Seattle, and they come into this one without cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, with Max Melton questionable on top of that. A thin secondary is the worst thing to bring into Santa Clara.
What could go wrong: The receiving room is thin too. Demarcus Robinson is out and Mike Evans is questionable with a hip. Divisional games are also routinely closer than the teams involved deserve.
Worth saving? Not especially, which is what makes them the pick. The catch is that this guide recommended them last week, so a lot of entries no longer have them. If you are one of those, Detroit below is the next best use of a week.
Biggest number: Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins, -11.5)
Why they win: Eleven and a half points, three clear of anything else on the board. Kansas City is 2-0, having beaten Denver 31-10 and Indianapolis 33-30, and their injury report is the quietest of any team in this guide. Miami is 0-2 and has been beaten 27-13 at Las Vegas and 35-13 at San Francisco.
What could go wrong: Kansas City needed overtime to get past a winless Indianapolis side at home last week, so this is a team winning without much margin, now asked to do it on the road by two scores. The widest number on the board is also where most of the country will be, and when it misses it takes an enormous share of the field with it.
Worth saving? More than anyone else here, which is the whole problem. If there is one team you want in hand for a bad December week, it is this one. Taking them now buys the safest week of the season so far at the highest price on the board.
Best value: Detroit Lions (vs. New York Jets, -6.5)
Why they win: Detroit is at home off a 41-31 loss at Buffalo, which is a competitive loss rather than a bad one, and they opened by beating New Orleans 31-30 in overtime. The Jets beat Tennessee 23-10 and then lost 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay, and they will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
What could go wrong: Both of Detroit's games have been decided late, and a team that has given up 30 and 41 points is not one you can assume wins comfortably. The number asks them to win by a touchdown.
Worth saving? Barely, and that is the argument. Detroit is a team you can spend in September without feeling it in December, which is exactly what you want from a mid-sized favorite.
If your pool locks Thursday: Green Bay Packers (vs. Atlanta Falcons, -6)
Why they win: Atlanta is 0-2 and was beaten 34-3 by Carolina last week, which is the worst single performance of the season so far. Green Bay won 20-17 in overtime at the Jets after opening with a 39-22 loss at Minnesota, and gets them at home.
What could go wrong: Six points is the thinnest margin of any pick on this page, Michael Penix Jr. is healthy for Atlanta, and Green Bay has its own problems in the middle of the defense with Javon Hargrave out. And a Thursday pick is made before the weekend's news: every other option here can still be changed on Sunday morning, and this one cannot.
Worth saving? Low cost either way. A sound pick, and a poor use of a Thursday deadline unless your pool forces one.
Strong, and expensive: Buffalo Bills (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -7)
Why they win: Buffalo is 2-0, having won 36-31 at Houston and beaten Detroit 41-31. The Chargers are 0-2 and have lost at home twice by the same 26-14 scoreline, to Arizona and then Las Vegas, and they arrive without tight ends David Njoku and Charlie Kolar and two of their cornerbacks.
What could go wrong: Buffalo has won two shootouts rather than two comfortable afternoons, and they are without defensive tackle Ed Oliver, with DJ Moore questionable. A team that has conceded 31 twice can be dragged into a third.
Worth saving? Strongly. Buffalo sits with Kansas City in the small group of teams worth holding for a week when the board is bare. Seven points is not the return that justifies spending one of them in September.
Murkier than the number: Seattle Seahawks (at Washington Commanders, -7)
Why people will take it: Seattle is 2-0 and won 31-7 at Arizona in the most convincing road performance of Week 2. Washington is 0-2, beaten 24-22 at Philadelphia and 37-20 at Dallas, and Jayden Daniels is doubtful with an elbow injury.
What could go wrong: Seattle is short at quarterback too. Sam Darnold is out, so this is most likely a backup on each side, which is the hardest kind of game to price and the hardest to trust at seven points on the road. Seattle also lost Zach Charbonnet for the season. The Week 2 win says their backup can carry a game; one game is not much to bet a season on.
Worth saving? Some, but not much. If both starters were healthy this would be higher on the list.
The trap: New York Giants (vs. Tennessee Titans, -6)
Why people will take it: Six points at home against a Tennessee side that is 0-2, beaten 23-10 by the Jets and 24-20 by Philadelphia. On paper it reads as a free week.
What could go wrong: The quarterback. Jaxson Dart hurt his knee in Week 2, his MRI came back worse than the team expected, and he is doubtful with season-ending surgery reported as a possibility. Jameis Winston is now first on the depth chart. Malik Nabers is questionable on top of that, and this is a team that was beaten 28-6 at the Rams last week. Six points is a lot to lay while a team is still working out who its quarterback is.
Worth saving? Not relevant. This is not a team you are holding for later, so there is no upside to taking the risk.
The ranking
- San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona, -8.5). The biggest home number on the board, against a secondary missing two starters, and cheap to spend. Our pick.
- Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami, -11.5). The biggest number of the season so far and the most expensive team on the board to spend.
- Detroit Lions (vs. New York Jets, -6.5). The cheapest of the real options, and the pick if San Francisco is already gone from your list.
- Buffalo Bills (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -7). Strong, and worth keeping back for a week with nothing in it.
- Green Bay Packers (vs. Atlanta, -6). The thinnest number here, and you have to commit to it on Thursday night.
- Seattle Seahawks (at Washington, -7). Two backups, one number, no thanks.
- New York Giants (vs. Tennessee, -6). Avoid.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Tuesday, and a Friday practice report can move a number by three points. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, and Week 3 opens on Thursday night.
And check which teams you have already used. Two weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 3 survivor pick?
Kansas City at Miami is the biggest number on the Week 3 board at 11.5 points, three clear of anything else. Safest means most likely to win this one game, which is not the same as the best pick: Kansas City is the team most people want available in December, so winning this week with them is the most expensive way to do it.
Is a road favorite safe in a survivor pool?
Week 2 answered this at our expense. That guide told people to avoid Seattle because they were a big road favorite without their starting quarterback. Seattle won 31-7.
Home field is worth roughly two to three points and it is already inside the number you are reading. A seven point road favorite has been judged as a seven point favorite with the travel counted. Judge the number and the matchup, not the venue.
Which Week 3 team should I avoid?
The New York Giants. They are laying six points against Tennessee with Jameis Winston now first on their depth chart, after Jaxson Dart's MRI came back worse than the team expected and left him doubtful. The other teams to avoid are the ones you will want later: Kansas City and Buffalo are both on the board this week and both are worth more to you in December.
Does my pool lock at the same time as everyone else's?
No. The pick deadline is set by your commissioner, not by the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 3 opens on Thursday night with Atlanta at Green Bay, and a pool that locks at that kickoff takes your pick before any of the weekend's injury news lands.
Also worth reading: how to plan your teams across the season and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →