Lines read on Tuesday night, November 10, after the trade deadline, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, Week 9: every team on our board won, including the one we said to avoid
Our pick was Seattle, favored by 12.5 at home to Arizona when we wrote it. The next afternoon, Mike Macdonald ruled Sam Darnold out with a quadriceps injury from the Chicago game, and the line came down. Drew Lock started instead, completed 19 of 28 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown, and Seattle won 17-3. Arizona's only points came on a field goal in the first quarter.
The rest of the board did its job too. San Francisco beat Las Vegas 38-17, Kansas City beat the Jets 35-12, and Detroit won 19-9 at Miami. Houston beat the Chargers 44-22, with C.J. Stroud throwing for 384 yards and five touchdowns. Matthew Stafford started, and the Rams won 20-13 at Washington.
And Dallas, our trap two weeks running, won. Indianapolis kicked a 50-yard field goal to lead 23-20 with 1:37 left, and Javonte Williams scored from a yard out with 68 seconds to go. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns. We were wrong about Dallas.
Jacksonville, which we left off as the Thursday night game, won 33-10 at Baltimore. The Giants, the other team we said to be careful with, won 19-11 at Philadelphia. Fourteen of the fifteen favorites won. The one that lost was New England, 45-27 at home to Green Bay, with Jordan Love completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and three touchdowns. And on Monday night, Buffalo beat Minnesota 23-6, with Carson Wentz completing 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards. The next day, Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins, which is where Week 10 starts.
A week when the whole board wins is not proof the advice is good, any more than Week 6 proved it bad. Seattle's case assumed a quarterback who did not play, and the team we told you to avoid won anyway. We write that down for the same reason we write up the losses: you should know how the advice has done before you take it.
How to think about Week 10
Nine weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
Jacksonville is the biggest favorite of the week at 10.5, at Tennessee. The Rams are 9.5 at Arizona, and Buffalo is 8.5 at the Jets. Then the board drops: Seattle is 6.5 at Las Vegas, and Houston and San Francisco are both 4.5. The four biggest favorites of the week are all on the road. Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye.
Tuesday was the trade deadline, and one trade touches two games on this board. Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota, where he played from 2018 to 2023. Fernando Mendoza makes his first career start for Las Vegas on Sunday, against Seattle, and Minnesota, which scored six points on Monday night, goes to Green Bay with Cousins on its roster.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, as they are every week, and so is the early game in Munich. That includes Baltimore, favored by 4.5 at home to the winless Chargers on Monday night. There is more on it in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 10 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fourteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans, -10.5)
Why they win: Tennessee is 1-7 and has lost all four of its home games. Jacksonville has won its last two by 35 and 23 points, 42-7 over Indianapolis and 33-10 at Baltimore. And Tennessee has traded away two of its defensive captains: Jeffery Simmons to Chicago before Week 8, and Amani Hooker to Buffalo on Tuesday.
What could go wrong: It is a division game, on the road, and Tennessee is coming off its bye. Five of Tennessee's seven losses came by seven points or fewer, and in Week 8 it led Cincinnati 36-29 with less than four minutes left before losing in overtime.
Worth saving? Some, and there is a catch: Jacksonville plays Tennessee again in Week 12, at home. If you are planning that far ahead, the Rams are a point behind this week. If you are not, the biggest number of the week is the week to use it.
The cheaper second choice: Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals, -9.5)
Why they win: Arizona is expected to start its third quarterback in three weeks. Gardner Minshew went on injured reserve on Tuesday with an elbow injury, and Carson Beck, a rookie, is expected to make his first NFL start, ESPN reported Monday. Arizona has lost all three of its home games, by 24, 24 and 14 points, and scored 3 at Seattle on Sunday. The Rams have won three straight.
What could go wrong: Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 in Los Angeles in Week 6, when the Rams were favored by 12.5 and were our pick. The Rams, already without Davante Adams, are expected to be without Puka Nacua too: Sean McVay said Monday that Nacua is likely headed to injured reserve with knee and toe injuries. And three of the Rams' four losses came by four points or fewer.
Worth saving? No. A 5-4 team is not one you are holding for December, and this is the pick if Jacksonville is gone or you are keeping it for Week 12.
Safe, but expensive: Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets, -8.5)
Why they win: Buffalo is 7-1, has won four straight, and is 4-0 on the road. The Jets are 2-7, have lost four straight, and gave up 38 and 35 points in the last two. And Buffalo added a safety on Tuesday, trading with Tennessee for Amani Hooker.
What could go wrong: It is a division game, and Buffalo played on Monday night, so it has a day less to prepare than the Jets. The Jets' three home losses came by 3, 3 and 5 points.
Worth saving? Yes. Buffalo is tied with San Francisco for the best record in the league. If you can get through this week without it, do.
Against a first start: Seattle Seahawks (at Las Vegas Raiders, -6.5)
Why they win: Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins on Tuesday, and general manager John Spytek named Fernando Mendoza, the first pick in this year's draft, the starter. Sunday is his first career start; his only other appearance came late in a Week 5 loss at New England. Las Vegas is 1-3 at home, and Seattle held Arizona to three points on Sunday.
What could go wrong: Seattle is starting its backup quarterback. Mike Macdonald said Monday that Sam Darnold will not play, and Drew Lock hurt his oblique on Sunday, though Macdonald said his tests were good and he is expected to play through it. Seattle is 1-2 on the road, and its four losses came by 2, 3, 3 and 17 points.
Worth saving? No. A 5-4 team is not one you are holding for December.
The cheap one: Houston Texans (at Cleveland Browns, -4.5)
Why they win: Houston has won three of its last four, and C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns in Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers. Cleveland has lost two straight.
What could go wrong: Cleveland is 3-0 at home, and all three wins came by three points. Deshaun Watson, who missed Sunday's game with a concussion, is expected to start, ESPN reported Monday. Houston is 3-5, and four and a half points on the road is not much.
Worth saving? No. A 3-5 team is not one you are holding for December.
Safe enough, but worth more later: San Francisco 49ers (at Dallas Cowboys, -4.5)
Why they win: San Francisco is 7-1, and its seven wins came by 20, 22, 6, 10, 3, 6 and 21 points. Dallas is 4-5 and has lost at home to Tampa Bay and Arizona.
What could go wrong: Dallas has won two of its last three, the last of them on a touchdown with 68 seconds to go. Seven of Dallas's nine games have had 48 points or more, and this one's total, 55.5, is the highest of the week. Four and a half points is not much.
Worth saving? Yes. It is the same number as Houston, and San Francisco is tied for the best record in the league. Use the cheaper team.
The trap: Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings, -3.5)
Why people will take it: Minnesota scored six points on Monday night, and Kyler Murray is doubtful with a hamstring strain. Green Bay scored 45 at New England on Sunday, when Jordan Love threw for 372 yards, and this one is at home.
What could go wrong: Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday. He played for the Vikings from 2018 to 2023, the last two seasons under Kevin O'Connell, who still coaches them. Minnesota is 6-2, 3-1 on the road, and beat Green Bay 39-22 in Week 1. And Green Bay will be without Josh Jacobs: Matt LaFleur confirmed Monday that he will have surgery on a broken finger.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
The ranking
- Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee, -10.5). The biggest number by a point, against a 1-7 team that has lost every home game. Our pick.
- Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona, -9.5). A point behind, against a rookie making his first start, and the pick if you are keeping Jacksonville for Week 12.
- Buffalo Bills (at the Jets, -8.5). Safe, but 7-1 and worth more later.
- Seattle Seahawks (at Las Vegas, -6.5). A first career start on the other side, but Seattle is starting its backup quarterback.
- Houston Texans (at Cleveland, -4.5). Cheap, but Cleveland has not lost at home.
- San Francisco 49ers (at Dallas, -4.5). The same number as Houston, and worth far more later.
- Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota, -3.5). Avoid: Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday, and beat Green Bay by 17 in Week 1.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Tuesday night, after the trade deadline, and three questions on this board will not be settled until later in the week: Drew Lock's oblique, Carson Beck's first start, and who starts at quarterback for Minnesota. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 10 opens on Thursday night with Washington at the Giants, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in Munich.
And check which teams you have already used. Nine weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 10 survivor pick?
Jacksonville, at Tennessee and favored by 10.5, the biggest number of the week by a point. Tennessee is 1-7 and has lost all four of its home games. The Rams, 9.5 at Arizona, are the pick if you have already used Jacksonville or are keeping it for Week 12, when it plays Tennessee again.
Should I save Jacksonville for its Week 12 game against Tennessee?
Jacksonville plays Tennessee twice in three weeks: at Tennessee this Sunday, and at home on Sunday, November 29, in Week 12. You can only use it once.
This week it is the biggest number on the board, and the Rams are a point behind. If you plan your season ahead and the Rams are still on your list, taking them now and keeping Jacksonville for Week 12 costs you a point this week. If you do not plan that far ahead, take the number in front of you.
Should I pick Baltimore against the winless Chargers on Monday night?
Baltimore is favored by 4.5 at home, and the Chargers are 0-8. But Baltimore has lost four straight without scoring more than 13 points in any of them, and Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve.
It is also the Monday night game, the last of the week, and this guide does not recommend prime-time games when there are good Sunday options. This week there are four favorites of 6.5 points or more on Sunday afternoon.
Which Week 10 team should I avoid?
Green Bay. The Packers are 3.5 point favorites at home to Minnesota, which scored six points on Monday night, but Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday and beat Green Bay 39-22 in Week 1, and Green Bay will be without Josh Jacobs. Indianapolis is the other one to be careful with: 3.5 point favorites at home to a 1-7 Miami team starting Kyle McCord in his first NFL game, but the Colts have lost five straight, and on Tuesday they traded two receivers, Keenan Allen and Josh Downs.
My pool has a double-pick week in Week 10. Which two teams?
Jacksonville and the Rams, the two biggest numbers, both on the road against teams that have not won at home this season. Buffalo is next at 8.5, but it is 7-1 and worth more later. Check that you have not already used either.
When does my pool lock in Week 10?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 10 opens on Thursday night with Washington at the New York Giants at 8:15 PM ET, and Sunday starts early: New England and Detroit play in Munich at 9:30 AM ET. Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye, so none of them is available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how double-pick weeks work and how to plan your teams across the season.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
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