Lines read on Tuesday night, November 3, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, Week 8: our pick survived, barely
After two weeks of writing up losses, this one is a win, and only just. Our pick was Cincinnati, favored by 10.5 at home to Tennessee when we wrote it and by 13.5 at kickoff. Tennessee led 13-0 after the first quarter and 36-29 with less than four minutes left. Tee Higgins caught the tying touchdown with 1:17 to go, and Joe Burrow ran in from nine yards in overtime to win it, 43-36.
Burrow completed 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards and five touchdowns, and threw three interceptions. Cam Ward threw for 304 yards for Tennessee, and Tony Pollard ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns.
The rest of the board did its job, and more comfortably. Jacksonville, our second choice, beat Indianapolis 42-7, with Trevor Lawrence throwing three touchdowns on 14 passes. The Rams beat the Chargers 24-9, New England won 24-19 at Miami, and Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27-6. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10: Lamar Jackson started, was hurt on his first pass, and Joe Fagnano threw the other 21.
And Dallas, the trap, lost. The Cowboys led Arizona 24-10 early in the fourth quarter. Gardner Minshew, who had replaced Jacoby Brissett late in the third, threw three touchdowns, the last one with six seconds left to tie it, and Arizona won 33-30 in overtime.
Three favorites lost outright in Week 8: Dallas, Seattle at home to Chicago, and the Jets at home to Las Vegas. And Minnesota lost 19-15 at Detroit, so there are no unbeaten teams left.
A survivor pool does not score style, and an overtime win counts the same as a 30 point one. But three weeks running, the biggest favorite on our board has been in trouble: the Rams and Houston lost, and Cincinnati needed overtime against a team that had won once. A big number is the best odds on the board, not a promise. We write up the close calls for the same reason we write up the misses: you should know how the advice has done before you take it.
How to think about Week 9
Eight weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
Seattle is the biggest favorite of the week at 12.5, at home to Arizona, two and a half points more than anybody else. San Francisco is 10 at home to Las Vegas, and Kansas City is 9.5 at home to the Jets. Then the board drops: Detroit is 7 at Miami, and Dallas is 6 at Indianapolis. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye. And there are no unbeaten teams left: Buffalo, Minnesota and San Francisco are all 6-1, and Buffalo and Minnesota play each other on Monday night.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, as they are every week, and so is the early game in Madrid. That includes Jacksonville, favored by 10 at Baltimore on Thursday night. There is more on it in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 9 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fifteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals, -12.5)
Why they win: Arizona is changing quarterbacks, with Gardner Minshew starting in place of Jacoby Brissett, and it is short at running back: Jeremiyah Love went on injured reserve on Tuesday, and Mike LaFleur said James Conner will not come off it this week. Seattle won the first meeting 31-7, in Arizona, in Week 2.
What could go wrong: Seattle is 4-4 and lost 34-17 at home to Chicago on Monday night, when Sam Darnold completed 17 of 34 passes. Its other three losses came by 2, 3 and 3 points. Arizona's three wins have all come on the road, including at the Rams as a 12.5 point underdog and in overtime at Dallas on Sunday, when Minshew came off the bench to throw three touchdowns.
Worth saving? No. A 4-4 team is not one you are holding for December, and the biggest number of the week by two and a half points is the week to spend it.
Safe, but expensive: San Francisco 49ers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders, -10)
Why they win: San Francisco is 6-1, coming off its bye, and at home. Its six wins came by 20, 22, 6, 10, 3 and 6 points. Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are listed as questionable, but all three were expected back after the bye.
What could go wrong: Las Vegas is 3-1 on the road, with wins at the Chargers, New Orleans and the Jets, where Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns in Sunday's 38-33 win. San Francisco's last game was a 29-20 loss at Atlanta. And this game's total of 52.5 is tied for the highest of the week.
Worth saving? Yes. San Francisco is tied for the best record left. If you can get through this week without it, do.
The cheaper second choice: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New York Jets, -9.5)
Why they win: The Jets are 2-6, have lost three straight, and gave up 38 points at home to Las Vegas on Sunday. Kansas City is 3-0 at home, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's loss at Denver.
What could go wrong: Kansas City has lost two straight, 20-3 at Seattle and 28-24 at Denver. The Jets have not lost a game by more than 11 points. And Breece Hall, who missed Sunday's game, is expected back, NFL Network reported Monday.
Worth saving? Some. Kansas City is 5-2 and will be favored again, but if Seattle is gone from your list and you would rather keep San Francisco, this is the pick.
On the road: Detroit Lions (at Miami Dolphins, -7)
Why they win: Miami is 1-6 and has lost all three of its home games. Detroit has won three straight, and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards in Sunday's 19-15 win over Minnesota.
What could go wrong: Detroit is 1-2 on the road, with losses at Buffalo and Carolina. Its defense will be short: safety Kerby Joseph will not play, his coach said Tuesday, and linebacker Jack Campbell is doubtful with a neck injury. Miami's last three losses came by 5, 7 and 5 points, and it won at the Jets two weeks ago.
Worth saving? Some. Detroit is 5-2, and a road favorite of a touchdown is a pick to make only if the three at the top are gone.
Against the only winless team: Houston Texans (at Los Angeles Chargers, -4.5)
Why they win: The Chargers are 0-7 and have not scored more than 23 points in a game. They scored 9 in Sunday's loss to the Rams, when Justin Herbert threw two interceptions. Houston is coming off its bye.
What could go wrong: Houston is 2-5, and its five losses came by 5, 14, 2, 4 and 6 points. Four and a half points on the road is not much. And David Montgomery is questionable: DeMeco Ryans said Monday he had no significant update on his groin.
Worth saving? No. A 2-5 team is not one you are holding for December.
Depends on Matthew Stafford: Los Angeles Rams (at Washington Commanders, -5.5)
Why they win: The Rams have won two straight, 35-21 at Las Vegas and 24-9 over the Chargers, and Washington is 2-4-1.
What could go wrong: Stafford left the locker room after Sunday's win with ice on his right arm, and Sean McVay acknowledged Monday that he has been dealing with arm soreness. He is listed as questionable. Washington beat Philadelphia 27-10 on Sunday night, and three of the Rams' four losses came by four points or fewer.
Worth saving? No. But a 4-4 team on the road is not the week to use it.
The trap, again: Dallas Cowboys (at Indianapolis Colts, -6)
Why people will take it: Indianapolis lost 42-7 at Jacksonville on Sunday, its fourth straight loss, and Daniel Jones was pulled for Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter. The Colts also traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson last week.
What could go wrong: Dallas is 3-5 and just lost a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead at home to Arizona, and two of its safeties, Caleb Downs and P.J. Locke, are in the concussion protocol after that game. Six of Dallas's eight games have had 48 points or more, and this one's total, 51.5, is one of the highest of the week.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
The ranking
- Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona, -12.5). The biggest number by two and a half points, against a team changing quarterbacks and short at running back. Our pick.
- San Francisco 49ers (vs. Las Vegas, -10). Safe, but 6-1 and worth more later.
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs. the Jets, -9.5). Half a point behind, and the pick if Seattle is gone and you are keeping San Francisco.
- Detroit Lions (at Miami, -7). A good team, on the road, short on defense.
- Houston Texans (at the Chargers, -4.5). Against the only winless team, but on the road.
- Los Angeles Rams (at Washington, -5.5). Depends on Matthew Stafford's arm.
- Dallas Cowboys (at Indianapolis, -6). Avoid: the trap last week too, and a 3-5 team on the road after losing a 14 point fourth-quarter lead at home.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Tuesday night, and two questions on this board will not be settled until later in the week: Matthew Stafford's arm and David Montgomery's groin. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 9 opens on Thursday night with Jacksonville at Baltimore, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in Madrid.
And check which teams you have already used. Eight weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 9 survivor pick?
Seattle, at home to Arizona and favored by 12.5, the biggest number of the week by two and a half points. San Francisco is next at 10, but it is 6-1 and worth more later, so Kansas City, 9.5 at home to the Jets, is the pick if you have already used Seattle.
Should I pick Jacksonville on Thursday night?
Jacksonville is favored by 10 at Baltimore, tied with San Francisco for the second-biggest number of the week, and Baltimore is without its starting quarterback. Lamar Jackson was hurt on his first pass at Buffalo on Sunday and is listed as out with a thumb injury, Tyler Huntley is doubtful with a toe injury, and Jesse Minter said Tuesday that Joe Fagnano will start.
It is also the Thursday night game, on the road, and this guide does not recommend prime-time games when there are good Sunday options. This week there are three, all at home.
Is San Francisco a good Week 9 pick?
A safe one, and an expensive one. San Francisco is 6-1, coming off its bye and favored by 10 at home to Las Vegas, but it is tied for the best record left, and Las Vegas is 3-1 on the road. If Seattle or Kansas City is still on your list, use one of them and keep San Francisco for a week that needs it.
Which Week 9 team should I avoid?
Dallas, again. The Cowboys are 6 point favorites at Indianapolis, but they are 3-5, they lost a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead at home to Arizona on Sunday, and two of their safeties are in the concussion protocol. The New York Giants are the other one to be careful with: 3.5 point road favorites at Philadelphia, in a division game with the lowest total of the week.
My pool has a double-pick week in Week 9. Which two teams?
Seattle and Kansas City, both at home. San Francisco sits between them at 10, but it is 6-1 and worth more later, and keeping it costs you only half a point. Check that you have not already used either.
When does my pool lock in Week 9?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 9 opens on Thursday night with Jacksonville at Baltimore at 8:15 PM ET, and Sunday starts early: Cincinnati and Atlanta play in Madrid at 9:30 AM ET. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye, so neither is available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how double-pick weeks work and how to plan your teams across the season.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →