Lines read on Wednesday October 28, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, Week 7: our pick lost again
Two weeks running, our pick was the biggest favorite on the board, and two weeks running it lost. Houston was favored by 10 at home to the New York Giants, three and a half points more than anybody else, and the Giants won 27-21 in overtime.
The Giants did not need two quarterbacks this time. J.J. McCarthy was the only one to throw a pass, completing 20 of 28 for 252 yards, and Cam Skattebo ran for 124 yards and a touchdown. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdowns for Houston, and Houston lost anyway.
Our third choice lost too. The Jets were at home to a Miami team that had not won a game, and Miami won 28-25, with Malik Willis throwing two touchdowns. Carolina, which we said depended on Baker Mayfield, lost 43-13 at home: Mayfield played, Bucky Irving ran for two touchdowns, and Bryce Young threw two interceptions and was sacked five times.
The rest of the board did its job. Minnesota, our second choice, beat Indianapolis 16-10. Denver won 30-16 at Arizona, and the Rams won 35-21 at Las Vegas. Baltimore, the trap, lost 35-13 to Cincinnati without Lamar Jackson, while Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns. And San Francisco, which we told you to save, lost 29-20 at Atlanta.
Four favorites lost outright in Week 7, and two of the three unbeaten teams lost: San Francisco, and Kansas City, 20-3 at Seattle. Minnesota is the last one.
A 10 point favorite at home is still the best odds on the board, and losing it two weeks running does not change how the board should be read. It changes how much you want a second good option you have not spent yet. We write up the misses for the same reason we write up the wins: you should know how the advice has done before you take it.
How to think about Week 8
Seven weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
Cincinnati is the biggest favorite of the week at 10.5, at home to Tennessee, and Jacksonville is a point behind at 9.5, at home to Indianapolis. Then the board drops: New England is 7.5 at Miami, and Dallas and the Rams are 6.5. Houston, the Giants, San Francisco and New Orleans are on bye. And Minnesota, the last unbeaten team, is a three point underdog at Detroit, so it is not on the board this week.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, as they are every week. There is more on those in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 8 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fourteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans, -10.5)
Why they win: Tennessee is 1-6, and its six losses came by 13, 4, 5, 6, 23 and 3 points. Joe Burrow completed 22 of 30 for 292 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 35-13 win at Baltimore. Cincinnati's two losses came by 3 and 5.
What could go wrong: Tennessee has been closer lately. It won 26-20 at Indianapolis two weeks ago and lost 27-24 to Cleveland on Sunday, when Tony Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati's wins over Tampa Bay and Miami came by 6 and 7. And the biggest favorite on the board has lost two weeks running.
Worth saving? A little. Cincinnati is 4-2 with Burrow and will be favored again, but 10.5 at home against a 1-6 team is the kind of week to use it.
Almost as safe: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts, -9.5)
Why they win: Indianapolis has lost three straight and scored 10 points at Minnesota on Sunday, when Daniel Jones threw for 108 yards and was sacked four times. Jacksonville is 4-2 and coming off its bye, and its two biggest wins came at home: 34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England. And on Tuesday Indianapolis traded two of its best players: defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco, and guard Quenton Nelson, an eight-time Pro Bowler, to Seattle.
What could go wrong: Jacksonville's last game was a 34-31 loss to Houston in London, and its other two wins came by 5 and 2 points. Indianapolis has scored 20 or more in five of its seven games.
Worth saving? Not much. If Cincinnati is already gone from your list, or you would rather keep it, this is the pick.
Against the only winless team: Los Angeles Rams (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -6.5)
Why they win: The Chargers are 0-6, the only winless team left, and have not scored more than 23 points in a game. Matthew Stafford threw three touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas.
What could go wrong: The Rams are 3-4, and three of their four losses came by four points or fewer, including the 18-16 loss to Arizona as a 12.5 point favorite. The Chargers are coming off their bye, and the two teams share a stadium, so the home field is the Rams' in name more than anything.
Worth saving? No. A 3-4 team is not one you are holding for December.
On the road: New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins, -7.5)
Why they win: Miami is 1-5 and lost its first five games by 14, 22, 14, 5 and 7 points. Drake Maye threw for 321 yards in Sunday's loss at Chicago.
What could go wrong: It is a division game on the road, and Miami just won its first game, 28-25 at the Jets, with Malik Willis at quarterback. New England is 4-3, lost 30-24 at Chicago on Sunday, and lost 35-6 at Jacksonville in Week 3.
Worth saving? Not much. A road favorite in a division game is a pick to make only if the two at the top are gone.
Depends on Lamar Jackson: Buffalo Bills (vs. Baltimore Ravens, -3.5)
Why they win: Buffalo is 5-1 and coming off its bye. Baltimore has lost two straight without Jackson, 13-10 at Cleveland and 35-13 at home to Cincinnati.
What could go wrong: Jackson is expected back. His coach, Jesse Minter, said Monday he was optimistic Jackson would play, and the injury report still lists him as questionable. Buffalo's five wins came by 5, 10, 8, 3 and 3 points, and this game's total of 54.5 is tied for the highest of the week.
Worth saving? Yes. Buffalo is 5-1 and will have easier weeks than this one.
A rematch: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns, -3.5)
Why they win: Pittsburgh has won three straight and is at home.
What could go wrong: Cleveland is 5-2 too, and beat Pittsburgh 27-24 four weeks ago. The total of 39.5 is the lowest of the week, and low-scoring games stay close.
Worth saving? Not relevant. If it comes to this, look again at the two at the top.
The trap: Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona Cardinals, -6.5)
Why people will take it: Dallas just won 38-21 at Philadelphia, with three touchdowns from Dak Prescott and 155 rushing yards from Javonte Williams, and Arizona is 2-5.
What could go wrong: Dallas games score. Five of its seven have had 48 points or more, and this one's total, 54.5, is tied for the highest of the week. Dallas lost at home to Tampa Bay as a 9.5 point favorite in Week 5, and Arizona beat the Rams as a 12.5 point underdog two weeks ago. Dallas is 3-4.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
The ranking
- Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee, -10.5). The biggest number, against a 1-6 team, with Burrow coming off four touchdowns. Our pick.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis, -9.5). A point behind, off its bye, against a team that scored 10 on Sunday and traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson on Tuesday.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. the Chargers, -6.5). Against the only winless team, in a stadium they share.
- New England Patriots (at Miami, -7.5). The bigger number, but on the road in a division game.
- Buffalo Bills (vs. Baltimore, -3.5). Depends on Lamar Jackson, who is expected back.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland, -3.5). Cleveland won the first meeting.
- Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona, -6.5). Avoid: the highest total of the week, and Dallas has already lost as a big favorite at home.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Wednesday, and Lamar Jackson's ankle will not be settled until later in the week. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, and Week 8 opens on Thursday night with Carolina at Green Bay. Clocks go back an hour early Sunday morning; every time on this page is Eastern, after the change.
And check which teams you have already used. Seven weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 8 survivor pick?
Cincinnati, at home to Tennessee and favored by 10.5, the biggest number of the week. Jacksonville is a point behind at 9.5, at home to Indianapolis, and is the pick if you have already used Cincinnati or would rather keep it.
Should I pick Buffalo in Week 8?
Buffalo is 5-1 and favored by 3.5 at home to Baltimore, but Lamar Jackson is expected back. His coach, Jesse Minter, said Monday he was optimistic Jackson would play, and he is listed as questionable.
Buffalo's five wins came by 5, 10, 8, 3 and 3 points. Against Baltimore with its quarterback, three and a half is not much of a cushion, and Buffalo is a team worth having later.
Is Minnesota a good Week 8 pick?
Not this week. Minnesota is 6-0 and the only unbeaten team left, but it is a three point underdog at Detroit. Keep it for a week it is favored.
Which Week 8 team should I avoid?
Dallas. The Cowboys are 6.5 point favorites at home to Arizona after a 38-21 win at Philadelphia, but five of their seven games have had 48 points or more, they lost at home to Tampa Bay as 9.5 point favorites in Week 5, and Arizona beat the Rams as a 12.5 point underdog two weeks ago.
My pool has a double-pick week in Week 8. Which two teams?
Cincinnati and Jacksonville, the two biggest numbers of the week, a point apart and both at home. A double-pick week is where having two good options at once matters most, so check that you have not already used either.
When does my pool lock in Week 8?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 8 opens on Thursday night with Carolina at Green Bay at 8:15 PM ET. Houston, the New York Giants, San Francisco and New Orleans are on bye, so none of them are available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how double-pick weeks work and how to plan your teams across the season.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →