Lines read on Wednesday October 21, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, Week 6: our pick lost
Last week we got to tell you we were right about Dallas. This week it is the other way round. Our pick was the Rams, favored by 12.5 at home to Arizona, the biggest number of the week by four points, against a team that had lost four straight and given up at least 31 points in every one of them.
Arizona won 18-16 in Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, Jacoby Brissett did not throw a touchdown at all, and the Rams lost anyway.
Our second choice lost too. Indianapolis was at home to a Tennessee offense that had scored 58 points in five games, and Tennessee won 26-20. Cam Ward threw for 102 yards. Daniel Jones threw 42 passes and two interceptions.
Baltimore, which we said to trust only if Lamar Jackson played: he did not, Tyler Huntley played quarterback again, and the Ravens lost 13-10 at Cleveland. And Chicago, the team we told you to avoid, won 31-23 at Atlanta with Caleb Williams back, completing 30 of 36 passes. We were wrong about Chicago.
The rest of the board held. Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6, New England beat the Jets 26-19, and Buffalo won 33-30 at Las Vegas. Six favorites lost outright in Week 6, and it emptied a lot of pools.
Nothing about the Rams pick was a long shot. A 12.5 point favorite is the best odds on the board, not a sure thing, and a week like this is why survivor pools are won by not running out of good options rather than by being right every week. We write up our misses for the same reason we wrote up Dallas: you should know how the advice has done before you take it.
How to think about Week 7
Six weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
Houston is the biggest favorite of the week at 10, three and a half points more than anybody else, at home to the Giants. Minnesota is next at 6.5, at home to Indianapolis, and Minnesota is unbeaten. After those two the board gets thin: nothing else is favored by more than 4.5. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington are on bye, so none of them are available.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, as they are every week, and so is the early game in Paris. There is more on both in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 7 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fourteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Houston Texans (vs. New York Giants, -10)
Why they win: Houston has won two straight, 26-3 at Tennessee and 34-31 over Jacksonville in London, and its four losses came by 5, 14, 2 and 4 points. The Giants lost 34-27 at home to New Orleans on Sunday and played two quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston, who threw two interceptions. And Houston's coach, DeMeco Ryans, said Monday that Tank Dell is on track to make his season debut.
What could go wrong: Houston is 2-4, and its defense has given up 30 points or more in three of its six games. The Giants have scored 27 or more in three of their last four. Running back David Montgomery is questionable. And last week's 12.5 point favorite lost.
Worth saving? No. A 2-4 team is not one you are holding for December, and a 10 point line at home is the week to spend it.
Safe, but expensive: Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis Colts, -6.5)
Why they win: Minnesota is 5-0, coming off its bye, and has allowed 64 points in five games. Indianapolis just lost at home to Tennessee, and cornerback Sauce Gardner was diagnosed with a calf strain on Monday and is doubtful.
What could go wrong: Only one of Minnesota's five wins came by more than 10 points: 17, 6, 7, 5 and 10. Its offense has scored 23 or fewer in four of its five games, which keeps everybody in the game.
Worth saving? Yes. Minnesota is one of three unbeaten teams left. If you can get through this week without them, do.
The cheaper second choice: New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins, -4.5)
Why they win: Miami is 0-5, one of two winless teams left, and has scored 70 points in five games. It has not lost a game by fewer than five points.
What could go wrong: The Jets are 2-4 and have not scored more than 24 points in a game this season. It is a division game, it has one of the lowest totals of the week, and low-scoring games stay close. Breece Hall is questionable. Four and a half points is not much.
Worth saving? No. If Houston is already gone from your list and you would rather keep Minnesota, this is the pick.
On the road: Denver Broncos (at Arizona Cardinals, -4.5)
Why they win: Denver is 4-2 and has won four of its last five. Arizona is 2-4.
What could go wrong: Denver's offense. Bo Nix threw for 107 yards in Sunday's 17-14 overtime win over Seattle, and Denver has scored 23 or fewer in five of its six games. Cornerback Pat Surtain II is doubtful. And Arizona just won in Los Angeles as a 12.5 point underdog.
Worth saving? Some. A middle option, worth more than Houston or the Jets.
Depends on the quarterback: Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -3.5)
Why they win: Carolina won 25-14 at Philadelphia on Sunday, when Bryce Young threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay is 1-5, and Baker Mayfield is questionable with a thumb injury. Jalon Daniels has played quarterback the last two weeks, and threw for 164 yards and two interceptions in Sunday's overtime loss to Pittsburgh.
What could go wrong: It is a division game at three and a half points, and the line will move with Mayfield. Daniels also beat Dallas on the road two weeks ago.
Worth saving? Not much. The question is Mayfield, not what Carolina costs.
Last week's pick, on the road: Los Angeles Rams (at Las Vegas Raiders, -4.5)
Why they win: Las Vegas has lost three straight, and Stafford played well in Sunday's loss: two touchdowns and no interceptions.
What could go wrong: The Rams have lost four of six. Davante Adams went on injured reserve on Tuesday, and Sean McVay said Monday that defensive lineman Kobie Turner is expected to follow him after hurting his groin on Sunday. Las Vegas lost two of its three by 3 points each, to Kansas City and Buffalo, and Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards against Buffalo.
Worth saving? No. If you still have them, that is not a reason to use them here.
The trap: Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals, -3)
Why people will take it: Baltimore is 4-2 and at home.
What could go wrong: Lamar Jackson has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is questionable again. Tyler Huntley played both, and Baltimore scored 10 points at Cleveland on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off its bye with Joe Burrow at quarterback. A three point favorite with nobody sure who plays quarterback is the same warning we gave last week, and last week it was right.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
The ranking
- Houston Texans (vs. New York Giants, -10). The biggest number by three and a half points, against a team that played two quarterbacks on Sunday. Our pick.
- Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis, -6.5). Safe, but unbeaten and worth more later.
- New York Jets (vs. Miami, -4.5). Against a winless team, and the pick if you are keeping Houston and Minnesota.
- Denver Broncos (at Arizona, -4.5). A good team with an offense that keeps games close.
- Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay, -3.5). Depends on Baker Mayfield.
- Los Angeles Rams (at Las Vegas, -4.5). On the road, without Davante Adams and Kobie Turner.
- Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati, -3). Avoid unless Lamar Jackson plays.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Wednesday, and four questions on this board will not be settled until later in the week: Lamar Jackson's ankle, Baker Mayfield's thumb, Pat Surtain II's ankle and David Montgomery's groin. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 7 opens on Thursday night, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in Paris.
And check which teams you have already used. Six weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 7 survivor pick?
Houston, at home to the New York Giants and favored by 10, the biggest number of the week by three and a half points. Minnesota is next at 6.5, at home to Indianapolis, but Minnesota is one of three unbeaten teams left, which makes it expensive to spend now.
Should I pick San Francisco in Week 7?
San Francisco is 6-0 and favored by 3 at Atlanta. Three points on the road is not much of a cushion, Deebo Samuel is out, and Mike Evans left Monday night's game with Achilles tendinitis and is questionable.
And San Francisco is one of three unbeaten teams left, which makes it one of the most valuable teams you can still have. Spend it in a week that needs it.
Which Week 7 team should I avoid?
Baltimore. The Ravens are three point favorites at home to Cincinnati, but Lamar Jackson has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is questionable again, and Baltimore scored 10 points at Cleveland on Sunday without him. Cincinnati comes in off its bye with Joe Burrow at quarterback.
Is the Paris game a good Week 7 pick?
Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 over New Orleans at the Stade de France, at 9:30 AM ET on Sunday. A neutral-site game with a three and a half point line is not where to spend a week when Houston and Minnesota are on the board. If your pool locks each game at its own kickoff, it is also the first game of Sunday to lock.
When does my pool lock in Week 7?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 7 opens on Thursday night with New England at Chicago, and Sunday starts early: Pittsburgh and New Orleans play in Paris at 9:30 AM ET. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Los Angeles Chargers and Washington are on bye, so none of them are available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how to plan your teams across the season and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
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