Lines read on Wednesday October 14, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, Week 5: we told you not to pick Dallas
Dallas was the biggest favorite of Week 5, which made it the easiest pick on the board. We left it off ours. It was the Thursday night game, and this guide does not recommend prime-time games when there are good Sunday options. We also gave a second reason: Tampa Bay was 0-4, but it had lost those four games by 6, 4, 7 and 3 points. Winless, but never blown out.
On Thursday night, Tampa Bay won 24-16 in Arlington. Its backup quarterback, Jalon Daniels, completed 19 of 25 passes, Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards, and Dak Prescott threw two interceptions. It emptied a lot of pools before Sunday even started.
The rest of the board went the same way. Every team we recommended won. Cincinnati, our pick, beat Miami 31-24, exactly the seven points it was favored by. Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London, closer than anybody wanted. Houston won 26-3 at Tennessee, Detroit won 45-21 at Arizona, and Denver won 23-17 at the Chargers.
And the two teams we warned you about did not win. Chicago, which we said looked better than it was, lost 31-7 at Green Bay, and its two quarterbacks threw three interceptions between them. Washington, the trap, tied the Giants 27-27 in overtime; whether that knocked you out depends on how your pool counts a tie. Five favorites lost outright in Week 5, and a sixth tied.
How to think about Week 6
Five weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
This week has a clear top of the board. The Rams are favored by 12.5 at home, four points more than anybody else. Behind them on Sunday afternoon come three favorites of a touchdown or more, all at home: Kansas City, New England and Indianapolis. All four are division games. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye, so none of them are available.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, and that includes San Francisco at 7.5 on Monday night. After what happened to Dallas, that should not need explaining, but there is more on it in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 6 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fourteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona Cardinals, -12.5)
Why they win: Arizona has lost four straight and given up at least 31 points in every one: 31 to Seattle, 36 at San Francisco, 36 at the Giants and 45 to Detroit on Sunday. The Rams scored 34 on Monday night, when Matthew Stafford completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards and Puka Nacua caught 17 of them. Stafford is at the top of the depth chart and off the injury report.
What could go wrong: The Rams lost that game, 37-34 to Buffalo in overtime, and they are 2-3. Playing on Monday night also puts them on a short week. Arizona can score some, too: Jacoby Brissett threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit. And it is a division game.
Worth saving? Not much. A 2-3 team is not one you are holding for December, and a 12.5 point line at home is exactly the kind of week to spend it on.
Close second: Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans, -7)
Why they win: Tennessee cannot score. The Titans are 0-5 and have scored 58 points all season, 10, 20, 7, 18 and 3, the 3 coming at home to Houston on Sunday, when Cam Ward threw for 170 yards and no touchdowns.
What could go wrong: Indianapolis is 2-3, and its defense gave up 41, 33 and 34 points in its three losses. The last was 34-22 at Pittsburgh, where Daniel Jones threw 44 passes and no touchdowns. Tennessee has lost three of its five games by six points or fewer, and this is a division game.
Worth saving? Not much. If the Rams are already gone from your list, this is the pick.
Safe, but expensive: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -8.5)
Why they win: Kansas City is 4-0, coming off its bye, and has allowed 77 points in four games. The Chargers are 0-5. Justin Herbert threw for 121 yards against Denver on Sunday, and his receivers are hurting: Ladd McConkey was active but did not play a snap, and Tre' Harris is week-to-week with a hamstring injury from that game.
What could go wrong: It is a division game, and the Chargers' losses have been getting closer: 12, 12, 8, 7 and 6 points. Two of Kansas City's four wins came by three points, 33-30 over Indianapolis and 30-27 at Las Vegas.
Worth saving? Yes. Kansas City is one of three unbeaten teams left. If you can get through this week without them, do.
Big number, division game: New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets, -7.5)
Why they win: Drake Maye completed 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas, and New England is 2-0 at home. The Jets are 2-3, and Geno Smith threw for 182 yards in Sunday's 17-12 win over Cleveland.
What could go wrong: New England lost running back TreVeyon Henderson to a high-ankle sprain on Monday, and he is expected to miss multiple weeks. The Jets have lost their three games by 3, 7 and 11 points, so they have not been blown out either, and division games get closer than the line says.
Worth saving? Some. A middle option, worth more than the Rams or the Colts.
On a short week: Buffalo Bills (at Las Vegas Raiders, -5.5)
Why they win: Buffalo is 4-1, and Josh Allen ran for 121 yards in Monday night's win over the Rams. Las Vegas just lost 45-17 at New England.
What could go wrong: Buffalo played an overtime game on Monday night and is on the road six days later. Its defense has given up 30 points or more in three of its five games, and this game has the highest total of anything on Sunday's board. In a shootout, five and a half points goes quickly.
Worth saving? Yes. Buffalo is one of the better teams left, and the number is the problem this week, not the cost.
Looks better than it is: Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns, -4.5)
Why people will take it: Baltimore is 4-1, and won 30-23 in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday night with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.
What could go wrong: Lamar Jackson missed that game with an ankle injury and is questionable again. Cleveland is 2-0 at home, 21-18 over Carolina and 27-24 over Pittsburgh. A road division game at 4.5 points, with nobody sure who plays quarterback, is not one to trust your season to.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
The trap: Chicago Bears (at Atlanta Falcons, -3)
Why people will take it: Chicago is a road favorite against a 2-3 team, and Atlanta's quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., left Sunday night's game with a rib injury and is questionable.
What could go wrong: Chicago just lost 31-7 at Green Bay. Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent both played, and threw for 195 yards and three interceptions between them. Caleb Williams, who has missed two games with a hamstring injury, is questionable. And on Tuesday the NFL suspended defensive end Montez Sweat for two games. A three point road favorite with its own quarterback question, a week after losing by 24, is the team we told you about last week, only worse.
Worth saving? Not relevant. There is no version of this where the risk is worth it.
The ranking
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona, -12.5). The biggest number by four points, against a defense that has given up 31 or more in four straight. Our pick.
- Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee, -7). Against an offense with 58 points all season, and the pick if the Rams are gone.
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -8.5). Safe, but unbeaten and worth more later.
- New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets, -7.5). A big number in a division game.
- Buffalo Bills (at Las Vegas, -5.5). A short week, on the road, with a defense that gives up points.
- Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland, -4.5). Only if Lamar Jackson plays, and even then thin.
- Chicago Bears (at Atlanta, -3). Avoid.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Wednesday, and three questions on this board will not be settled until later in the week: Lamar Jackson's ankle, Caleb Williams's hamstring and Michael Penix Jr.'s ribs. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 6 opens on Thursday night, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in London.
And check which teams you have already used. Five weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 6 survivor pick?
The Los Angeles Rams, at home to Arizona and favored by 12.5, the biggest number of the week by four points. Arizona has lost four straight and given up at least 31 points in every one of them. Indianapolis at home to Tennessee is next: the Titans have scored 58 points in five games.
Should I pick San Francisco on Monday night?
San Francisco is 5-0 and favored by 7.5 at home to Washington, but it is the Monday night game, and this guide does not recommend prime-time games when there are good Sunday options. Last week's Thursday night favorite was Dallas, and Dallas lost.
There is a second reason. San Francisco is one of three unbeaten teams left, which makes it one of the most valuable teams you still have. Spend it in a week that needs it.
Which Week 6 team should I avoid?
Chicago. The Bears are three point favorites at Atlanta after losing 31-7 at Green Bay, Caleb Williams is questionable after missing two games, and the NFL suspended defensive end Montez Sweat for two games on Tuesday. Baltimore is the other one to be careful with: Lamar Jackson missed last week's game and is questionable again.
When does my pool lock in Week 6?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 6 opens on Thursday night with Seattle at Denver, and Sunday starts early: Houston and Jacksonville play at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30 AM ET. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye, so none of them are available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how to plan your teams across the season and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →