Lines read on Tuesday October 6, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, how Week 4 went for this guide
Our pick survived, by less than the number said it would. Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-18, a six point win as an 11.5 point favorite, and Lamar Jackson now has an ankle sprain that has him reported unlikely to play this week. Minnesota, our second choice, beat Miami 15-10, and Seattle beat the Chargers 30-23.
The miss was Buffalo, ranked fourth and recommended only if Josh Allen played. He played, completed 23 of 33 passes for 253 yards, and New England won 29-26 in Buffalo. Kansas City won 30-27 at Las Vegas and Green Bay won 17-14 at Tampa Bay, both by three, which is about as close as those two numbers said they would be.
The team we told you to avoid won comfortably. Chicago beat the Jets 23-12, and the quarterback question we raised went better than expected: Tyson Bagent started, not Case Keenum as we had it, and completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards. Seven favorites lost outright in Week 4, one fewer than in Week 3.
How to think about Week 5
Four weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are smaller again. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
This week has no easy top of the board. Nobody is favored by double digits on Sunday, and the three biggest Sunday numbers, all between 7 and 7.5 points, come with a catch each: two are road favorites, and the third is playing in London. Kansas City and Carolina are on bye, so neither is available.
Every game below is a Sunday game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose, and that includes the biggest number of the week, Dallas at 8.5 on Thursday night. There is more on that one in the questions at the bottom.
The Week 5 board
Seven games worth weighing, not fifteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Cincinnati Bengals (at Miami Dolphins, -7)
Why they win: Miami cannot score. The Dolphins are 0-4 and have scored 13, 13, 10 and 10 points, and they are still without De'Von Achane, who went on injured reserve last week. Malik Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards in Sunday's 15-10 loss at Minnesota. Joe Burrow is at the top of Cincinnati's depth chart, off the injury report, and threw for 428 yards on Sunday.
What could go wrong: Cincinnati has lost two straight, 30-27 at Pittsburgh and 22-17 at home to Jacksonville, and its defense has given up 22 points or more in three of its four games. Its two best receivers are uncertain: Ja'Marr Chase left Sunday's game with a concussion, and Tee Higgins is day-to-day with an adductor injury. And it is a road game.
Worth saving? Not much. A 2-2 team whose defense leaks points is exactly the kind of team to spend in October, and that is part of why it is the pick: a touchdown favorite against the worst offense on the board, from a team you will not miss later.
Close second: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Philadelphia Eagles in London, -7)
Why they win: Jacksonville is 3-1, with wins of 34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England and a 22-17 win at Cincinnati on Sunday. Philadelphia has lost two straight, scoring 7 points at Chicago and 20 at home to the Rams, and Jalen Hurts completed 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards on Sunday. The Eagles are banged up as well: Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury, Dallas Goedert is doubtful, DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown are questionable, and Tank Bigsby went on injured reserve on Tuesday. The offensive line is also playing without right tackle Lane Johnson, who retired.
What could go wrong: This is not a home game. It is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, a neutral site, and last week's London game ended with the nominal home team, Washington, losing 30-13. Philadelphia has been blown out only once, 27-7 at Chicago, and both of its wins came by four points or fewer, so seven points on a neutral field is a full touchdown against a team that usually keeps it close.
Worth saving? More than Cincinnati. Jacksonville is one of the better teams on the board, and two of its wins have been blowouts. If Cincinnati is already gone from your list, this is the pick. In a pool that locks at the first Sunday kickoff, it is also the first game of the day.
Biggest Sunday number, from a team that has not won: Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans, -7.5)
Why they win: Tennessee has scored 55 points in four games. Three of Houston's four losses came by five points or fewer, and C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards in Sunday's 34-30 loss to Dallas.
What could go wrong: Houston is 0-4, and its defense has given up 36 points to Buffalo and 34 to Dallas. Tennessee has lost every game too, but three of them by six points or fewer, including 24-18 at Baltimore last week as an 11.5 point underdog. A team that has not won yet is being asked to win on the road by more than a touchdown.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The question is whether they win, not what they cost.
Reasonable, with a defense question: Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals, -4.5)
Why they win: Arizona is 1-3 and has lost three straight, giving up 36 points at the Giants on Sunday. On Tuesday the Cardinals lost tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season with a biceps injury. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards in Sunday night's game.
What could go wrong: That game was a 32-26 loss at Carolina, and Detroit's defense has allowed 30, 41, 24 and 32 points. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is expected to miss this one. Four and a half points on the road is a modest cushion for a team giving up that much.
Worth saving? Some. A middle option, worth more than Cincinnati and less than the unbeaten teams.
Fine, but thin: Denver Broncos (at Los Angeles Chargers, -3.5)
Why they win: The Chargers are 0-4, and their offensive line is coming apart: Rashawn Slater suffered a high-ankle sprain on Sunday and is expected to miss four to six weeks, Joe Alt left the same game with a neck injury, and Ladd McConkey is week-to-week with a foot injury.
What could go wrong: It is a road division game at 3.5 points, Denver is 2-2 after a 24-14 loss at San Francisco, and Pat Surtain II is expected to miss about two weeks with an ankle injury. The Chargers have lost by 12, 12, 8 and 7. They are still losing, not collapsing.
Worth saving? Some, but the number is the problem, not the cost.
Looks better than it is: Chicago Bears (at Green Bay Packers, -3)
Why people will take it: Chicago is 3-1, has won its last two by 20 and 11 points, and Tyson Bagent played well in place of Caleb Williams last week. Green Bay is 2-2 and lost its only home game so far 35-14 to Atlanta.
What could go wrong: Williams is out again: he will not practice this week and is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. So this is Bagent again, on the road, at Lambeau, in a division game, at three points. A road favorite of a field goal with its backup quarterback is close to a coin flip with a small edge.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The problem is the number, not the cost.
The trap: Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants, -3.5)
Why people will take it: Washington is a home favorite against a division rival, and 3.5 points reads as a comfortable line.
What could go wrong: The quarterback. Jayden Daniels did not play last week and is questionable with an elbow injury. Marcus Mariota, next in line, was forced out of last week's game with an MCL sprain and is doubtful. Athan Kaliakmanis, third on the depth chart, played most of that 30-13 loss to Indianapolis and completed 15 of 33 passes. The Giants are 3-1 and scored 36 points against Arizona on Sunday. A 3.5 point line built around a quarterback nobody can name yet is not one to trust your season to.
Worth saving? Not relevant. There is no version of this where the risk is worth it.
The ranking
- Cincinnati Bengals (at Miami, -7). A touchdown favorite against an offense that has not reached 14 points all season, and cheap to spend. Our pick.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Philadelphia in London, -7). Nearly as safe, a little more expensive, and the pick if Cincinnati is already gone.
- Houston Texans (at Tennessee, -7.5). The biggest Sunday number, from a team that has not won yet.
- Detroit Lions (at Arizona, -4.5). A good offense with a defense that gives points back.
- Denver Broncos (at Los Angeles Chargers, -3.5). The Chargers are hurting, and the number is still thin.
- Chicago Bears (at Green Bay, -3). A backup quarterback on the road in a division game.
- Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants, -3.5). Avoid.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Tuesday, and three questions on this board will not be settled until later in the week: Ja'Marr Chase's concussion, Saquon Barkley's hamstring, and who plays quarterback for Washington. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 5 opens on Thursday night, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in London.
And check which teams you have already used. Four weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 5 survivor pick?
There is no double-digit favorite on Sunday this week, and none of the three biggest Sunday numbers is a team playing in its own stadium. Cincinnati at Miami at 7 points is our pick: Miami is 0-4 and has scored 46 points in four games, never more than 13. Houston at Tennessee is the biggest Sunday number at 7.5, but Houston has not won a game yet.
Should I pick Dallas on Thursday night?
Dallas at home to Tampa Bay is the biggest number of the week at 8.5, and Tampa Bay is 0-4 with Baker Mayfield still out. It is also the Thursday night game, and this guide does not recommend prime-time games when there are good Sunday options. Week 3's Thursday game was this guide's worst result that week.
There is a second reason. Tampa Bay has lost its four games by 6, 4, 7 and 3 points. Winless, but never blown out, which is not what an 8.5 point line suggests.
Which Week 5 team should I avoid?
Washington. They are 3.5 point favorites at home to a 3-1 Giants team, and nobody knows who will play quarterback: Jayden Daniels missed last week and is questionable with an elbow injury, and Marcus Mariota, next in line, has an MCL sprain and is doubtful. Chicago is the other one to be careful with: a road favorite of three points at Green Bay with its backup quarterback.
When does my pool lock in Week 5?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 5 opens on Thursday night with Tampa Bay at Dallas, and Sunday starts early again: Philadelphia and Jacksonville kick off in London at 9:30 AM ET. Kansas City and Carolina are on bye, so neither is available this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how to plan your teams across the season and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →