Lines read on Tuesday September 29, injury designations the same day. Both move during the week, so check before you lock anything in.
First, how Week 3 went for this guide
Our pick survived, and not by much. San Francisco beat Arizona 36-30, a six point win as an 8.5 point favorite. Kansas City won 24-10 at Miami, Detroit beat the Jets 31-24 and Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16, so every team ranked in the top four came through.
The miss was Green Bay, and it should not have been on the list at all. It was the Thursday night game, and our own advice is to avoid prime-time games whenever you have a better option. There were four better options ranked above it. Atlanta beat them 35-14 in Green Bay, the worst result of the week for this guide.
The two teams we told you to stay away from split. Seattle, ranked second to last as "two backups, one number, no thanks", lost 33-31 at Washington. The Giants, ranked last, beat Tennessee 12-7, which is a win, and also twelve points at home against a team that has not scored more than 20 all season. Eight favorites lost outright in Week 3, three more than in Week 2.
How to think about Week 4
Three weeks of teams are gone from your list, and the pools you are in are a fraction of the size they were in September. The question has not changed:
Which team gives you the best chance to survive this week without spending a team you will need later?
This week has an unusually clear top of the board. Two teams are double-digit favorites at home against winless opponents, and nothing else is laying more than seven. Below those two, the board is shaped by quarterbacks: one star listed questionable, one starter doubtful, and one opponent without its starter for the next three weeks.
Every game below is a Sunday afternoon game. The Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night games are left off on purpose: with better options available, a prime-time pick adds risk for nothing.
The Week 4 board
Seven games worth weighing, not sixteen. Each with the reason to take it, the reason not to, and what it costs you later.
Safest, and our pick: Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans, -11.5)
Why they win: The biggest number on the board, at home, against a team that cannot score. Tennessee is 0-3 and has managed 10, 20 and 7 points, and last week it lost 12-7 at the Giants. Baltimore has scored 41 and 34 in its two wins, and Lamar Jackson is at the top of the depth chart and not on the injury report.
What could go wrong: Baltimore has already lost a home game it was favored to win, 24-17 to New Orleans in Week 2. The offensive line is banged up too: center Ethan Pocic is out and expected to miss significant time, and tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable. And the defense gave up 31 points in last week's 34-31 win at Dallas.
Worth saving? Some, but less than the unbeaten teams further down this page. That is what makes Baltimore the pick: the biggest number on the board, from a team you can spend in October without feeling it later.
Close second: Minnesota Vikings (vs. Miami Dolphins, -10.5)
Why they win: Minnesota is 3-0 and Miami is 0-3. The Dolphins have scored 13, 13 and 10 points, and on Monday they placed De'Von Achane on injured reserve, so an offense that has not reached 14 points in any game is now without him as well. Minnesota has won 39-22 over Green Bay, 9-3 at Chicago and 23-16 at Tampa Bay.
What could go wrong: Justin Jefferson sprained his ankle and is questionable, though the team is hopeful he plays. And two of Minnesota's three wins came by a touchdown or less, 9-3 and 23-16, which is a team winning with its defense rather than running away from people.
Worth saving? More than Baltimore. Minnesota is one of five unbeaten teams, and a defense that has allowed 3 and 16 points on the road is a useful thing to have for a week with no obvious answer. If Baltimore is already gone from your list, this is the pick.
Better than last week: Seattle Seahawks (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -7)
Why they win: Last week this guide said Seattle would rank higher if its quarterback were healthy. Sam Darnold is back at the top of the depth chart and off the injury report, and Seattle is at home. The Chargers are 0-3 and have scored 14, 14 and 16 points, losing 26-14 twice at home and 24-16 at Buffalo.
What could go wrong: Seattle's last game was a loss, 33-31 at Washington, and seven points asks for a full touchdown against a team whose three losses have all come by between 8 and 12 points. The Chargers have been losing, not collapsing.
Worth saving? Some. A solid middle option, and cheaper to spend than the unbeaten teams on this list.
Strong, if the quarterback plays: Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots, -7)
Why they win: Buffalo is 3-0, including home wins over Detroit and the Chargers, and New England lost 35-6 at Jacksonville last week.
What could go wrong: Josh Allen took a hit to the knee in the fourth quarter of Sunday's win and is listed questionable. The Bills have played down the concern, but you will not know for sure until the weekend, and a pick made before then is a guess about his knee.
Worth saving? Strongly. Buffalo sits in the small group of teams worth holding for a bare week later on, and seven points with a quarterback question attached is not the return that justifies spending them now.
Do not spend them here: Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders, -4.5)
Why people will take it: Kansas City is 3-0, Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the depth chart, nobody on the roster is on the injury report, and it is the most recognizable name on the board.
What could go wrong: Las Vegas is 3-0 too, having won at the Chargers and at New Orleans. This is a road divisional game between two unbeaten teams at 4.5 points, which is close to a coin flip with a small edge.
Worth saving? More than anyone else on the board. There is no week this season where spending Kansas City on a 4.5 point road game makes sense.
Looks easy, is not: Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -3.5)
Why people will take it: Tampa Bay is 0-3 and Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, expected to miss about three weeks. Jalon Daniels is next on their depth chart. On paper, a favorite playing a winless team without its quarterback.
What could go wrong: Green Bay is the team that lost 35-14 at home to Atlanta last week, and it is 1-2 with Jayden Reed doubtful. Tampa Bay's three losses have come by six, four and seven points, so this is not a side that has been getting blown out. Three and a half points on the road is a thin margin for a team coming off its worst game of the season.
Worth saving? Not relevant. The problem is the number, not the cost.
The trap: Chicago Bears (vs. New York Jets, -3.5)
Why people will take it: Chicago is 2-1 and just beat Philadelphia 27-7 on Monday night. Home against a 1-2 Jets team, it reads as a comfortable week.
What could go wrong: The quarterback. Caleb Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and Case Keenum is next on the depth chart. A 3.5 point line was built around a starter who probably will not play. The Jets have also been close in both of their losses, 20-17 to Green Bay in overtime and 31-24 at Detroit.
Worth saving? Not relevant. There is no version of this where the risk is worth it.
The ranking
- Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee, -11.5). The biggest number on the board, against an offense that has scored 37 points all season, and cheaper to spend than the unbeaten teams. Our pick.
- Minnesota Vikings (vs. Miami, -10.5). Nearly as safe, a little more expensive, and the pick if Baltimore is already gone.
- Seattle Seahawks (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, -7). Better now that the starter is back.
- Buffalo Bills (vs. New England, -7). Only with Josh Allen confirmed, and still worth saving.
- Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas, -4.5). A road game between two unbeaten teams. Keep them.
- Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay, -3.5). Tampa Bay's quarterback news makes it look easier than it is.
- Chicago Bears (vs. New York Jets, -3.5). Avoid.
Before you lock it in
Check the current line and the injury report. Everything above was read on Tuesday, and this week two of the most important questions on the board, Josh Allen's knee and Caleb Williams' hamstring, will not be settled until later in the week. Check your own pool's deadline too: it is set by your commissioner, Week 4 opens on Thursday night, and Sunday starts at 9:30 AM ET in London.
And check which teams you have already used. Three weeks in, the most avoidable way to go out is picking a team you have spent.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the safest Week 4 survivor pick?
Baltimore at home to Tennessee is the biggest number on the Week 4 board at 11.5 points, with Minnesota at home to Miami one point behind at 10.5. Tennessee is 0-3 and has scored 37 points in three games. Safest means most likely to win this one game, and those two are well clear of everything else on the board.
Should I pick Buffalo with Josh Allen questionable?
Only if you can wait for the news. Allen took a hit to the knee late in Sunday's win over the Chargers and is listed questionable, and the Bills have played down the concern. With him, Buffalo at home to New England at -7 is a sound pick. Without him, it is a different game at the same price.
The bigger reason to pass is what Buffalo is worth later. They are 3-0 and one of the few teams worth holding for a week when the board is bare, and seven points is not enough to justify spending them in October.
Which Week 4 team should I avoid?
Chicago. They are laying 3.5 points at home to the Jets with Caleb Williams doubtful with a hamstring injury, and Case Keenum is next on their depth chart. Green Bay at Tampa Bay is the other one to be careful with: Tampa Bay is without Baker Mayfield, which makes it look easy, but Green Bay just lost 35-14 at home and is being asked to win on the road by more than a field goal.
When does my pool lock in Week 4?
Your commissioner sets the pick deadline, not the first game of the week, so check your own pool. Week 4 opens on Thursday night with Pittsburgh at Cleveland, and Sunday starts early: Indianapolis and Washington kick off in London at 9:30 AM ET. A pool that locks at the first Sunday kickoff takes your pick hours earlier than usual this week.
Also worth reading: last week's picks, how to plan your teams across the season and the biggest mistakes people make in survivor pools.
Ready to run your own pool?
Picking is the fun part. Running the pool should be just as easy. Sunday Survivor handles the picks, the eliminations, and the deadline reminders automatically, so you can spend your Sundays watching games instead of chasing down stragglers in a group chat.
It is free to start. Set up your pool the way it should be →